How common is it for a criminal profiler to be wrong about a perp?

joezen777: How common is it for a criminal profiler to be wrong about a perp?
For a movie script: You watch those Dayle Hinman profiler shows and it seems like she is right most of the time. I want my profiler to be misled but don’t want them to look stupid. Anyone have personal experience with catching a criminal that turned out totally different from who you thought it would be?

Answers and Views:

Answer by VirtualSound
Profiling is an exercise in statistics and is often wrong. As an example, the DC area shooters a few years ago were profiled as likely an unemployed white man, perhaps a Viet Nam vet. News reports say they were “confident” in their profile, even though witnesses had mentioned that the shooter(s) appeared dark skinned. Must have been embarrassing when they caught the perps – 2 black men.

Answer by ahsoasho2u2
WELL NOW.
RESEARCH FILES OF GREEN RIVER KILLER. (GARY LEON RIDGEWAY, ARRESTED IN 1982 AS SUSPECT RELEASED. DET ROBERT KEPPEL KCSD WAS IN CHARGE OF THIS INVESTIGATION. NEW BOOKINGS INTO COUNTY JAIL ALWAYS LED BACK TO RIDGEWAY, NEVER ENOUGH.)
HE WAS A GOOD FRIEND OF POLICE, WAS IN MY ARMY RESERVE UNIT, FIT DESCRIPTION, BUT WAS ALWAYS WITH AN ALIBI? ALSO DID NOT FIT THE GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF A KILLER, WAS REALLY SHOCKED WHEN I READ THEY BUSTED HIM AND HE CONFESSED IN 2001?(NEVER KNOW WHO IS NEXT TO YOU)
ALSO TED BUNDY CASE, WAS ONE KEPPEL WORKED ON TILL BUNDY LEFT AREA. KNEW IT WAS TED BUT HE WAS AT TIME NOT LIKELY BECAUSE HE WAS THE AID TO A SENATE LEADER IN OLYMPIA?(BOOK ON TED BUNDY WAS “STRANGER NEXT TO ME??”) ABOUT THE LADY WHO WORKED WITH TED AT CRISIS CLINIC ANSWERING LINE?
I HAD KNOWN TED BUNDY AT QUEEN ANNE HILL GROCERY STORE 1964??.
ZODIAC KILLER IS ANOTHER CASE WE KNOW BUT NOT FOR CERTAIN. SO THERE IS THREE CASES OF GOOD STUDY FOR YOUR MOVIE? OH SEND MONEY TO HAHAHAHAHA

Answer by zebj25
Hey , to answer this question all you have to do is search the DC sniper. I think just about every profiler out there, and myself pegged this guys as a white guy. But hey, we all have our wackos.

Answer by Robert G
It’s so common that it’s illegal for anybody to be arrested or detained or anything simply upon the word of profilers.

No actual evidence plus a very specific profiling equals no case.